How would partitioning work? Many details still need to be hammered out, but Bosnian Serbs would get up to half of the republic and Bosnian Croats some 30 percent. Both ethnic groups would apparently be free to link up with, respectively, Serbia and Croatia. The proposed state for Muslims would consist of two separate landlocked pockets on some 20 percent of the land. How could the plan fail? Here are some of the ways:
_B_The proposal is unfair to Bosnia’s Muslims.b The brainchild of Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic and Croatian President Franjo Tudjman, the proposal, though murky in detail, is clear in intent: to reward the chief aggressors in the 15-month-old war. Muslims, 44 percent of Bosnia’s prewar population, would be herded into regions that are not economically viable. While these areas do contain some functioning industry, their only outlet to the Adriatic Sea would be a route to the Croatian port of Ploce that could be opened and closed at the Croats’ pleasure. “These places won’t exist in 10 years,” predicts Gordana Knezevic, deputy editor of Sarajevo’s Oslobodjenje newspaper. “There is no chance for economic or community life.” Instead, the Muslims would probably have to live as wards of international-aid agencies for years to come.
_B_Divisions within the Bosnian government may scuttle the plan.b Sarajevo has a baroque system of government-a 10-member collective presidency drawn from all three ethnic groups-that is deeply polarized over the talks. Bosnian President Alija Izetbegovic, who would have to sign off on the plan, labeled the proposal “genocide” and stormed out of the Geneva talks. At Owen’s urging, seven other members of the collective presidency (six of them Croats or Serbs) stayed to hear Tudjman and Milosevic out. One of them was Fikret Abdic, the lone Muslim representative at the talks, who argued that “everyone in Bosnia wants peace.” His words ring true, especially in the relatively peaceful and prosperous Muslim Bihac pocket that he controls as head of a large-scale business network. But Abdic has little chance of pulling off a coup against Izetbegovic as long as the Bosnian army, the real power in the increasingly fragmented republic, continues to back the president.
_B_Partitioning might not stabilize Bosnia._b_Even on the off-chance Izetbegovic signed, the republic could be thrown into chaos. Large-scale population transfers would probably take place, with the republic’s 1.5 million remaining Muslims crowding into their designated territories and Serbs and Croats heading out. One international official in the region envisions a mass movement like the flight of Muslims to Pakistan and Hindus to India after the British left the Subcontinent. But in Bosnia, the transfers would still leave unclear the fate of hundreds of thousands of people of mixed ancestry or mixed marriage. Which state would they call home?
_B_Without international policing, the plan could be doomed.b Bill Clinton vowed to send U.S. ground troops to enforce the Vance-Owen plan, which proposed keeping Bosnia intact but dividing the country into 10 semiautonomous provinces. Since that plan is dead, the commitment no longer applies. Yet without large numbers of international soldiers to keep peace along the new boundaries, the Muslims would live in constant danger of Serb or Croat attack. Most likely, says a foreign-relief official, the Muslims “would try to arm themselves for the next round-because there will be a next round.”
In fact, the mere talk of partition could trigger new hostilities any time. It’s already set off a round of threats and counter-threats. Serb forces continue to besiege the eastern Bosnian enclave of Gorazde. Radovan Karadzic, the Bosnian Serb leader, offered to trade Sarajevo to the Muslims for Gorazde. But he also said that if Izetbegovic refuses to accept partition soon, the Serbs and Croats would be that much more justified in “defeating” Muslim forces. For his part, Izetbegovic’s vice president, Ejup Ganic, said there will be terrorist attacks by Bosnians in Europe if the West abandons Bosnia. It was a desperate and probably idle threat that reflects the rising desperation of Bosnia’s Muslims. Lord Owen may be able to exploit their vulnerability to get some sort of peace plan at Geneva. But ultimately, partition is unlikely to heal the bleeding sore of the Balkans.
title: “A Partition Plan For Bosnia” ShowToc: true date: “2022-12-11” author: “Sally Kistner”
How would partitioning work? Many details still need to be hammered out, but Bosnian Serbs would get up to half of the republic and Bosnian Croats some 30 percent. Both ethnic groups would apparently be free to link up with, respectively, Serbia and Croatia. The proposed state for Muslims would consist of two separate landlocked pockets on some 20 percent of the land. How could the plan fail? Here are some of the ways:
_B_The proposal is unfair to Bosnia’s Muslims.b The brainchild of Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic and Croatian President Franjo Tudjman, the proposal, though murky in detail, is clear in intent: to reward the chief aggressors in the 15-month-old war. Muslims, 44 percent of Bosnia’s prewar population, would be herded into regions that are not economically viable. While these areas do contain some functioning industry, their only outlet to the Adriatic Sea would be a route to the Croatian port of Ploce that could be opened and closed at the Croats’ pleasure. “These places won’t exist in 10 years,” predicts Gordana Knezevic, deputy editor of Sarajevo’s Oslobodjenje newspaper. “There is no chance for economic or community life.” Instead, the Muslims would probably have to live as wards of international-aid agencies for years to come.
_B_Divisions within the Bosnian government may scuttle the plan.b Sarajevo has a baroque system of government-a 10-member collective presidency drawn from all three ethnic groups-that is deeply polarized over the talks. Bosnian President Alija Izetbegovic, who would have to sign off on the plan, labeled the proposal “genocide” and stormed out of the Geneva talks. At Owen’s urging, seven other members of the collective presidency (six of them Croats or Serbs) stayed to hear Tudjman and Milosevic out. One of them was Fikret Abdic, the lone Muslim representative at the talks, who argued that “everyone in Bosnia wants peace.” His words ring true, especially in the relatively peaceful and prosperous Muslim Bihac pocket that he controls as head of a large-scale business network. But Abdic has little chance of pulling off a coup against Izetbegovic as long as the Bosnian army, the real power in the increasingly fragmented republic, continues to back the president.
_B_Partitioning might not stabilize Bosnia._b_Even on the off-chance Izetbegovic signed, the republic could be thrown into chaos. Large-scale population transfers would probably take place, with the republic’s 1.5 million remaining Muslims crowding into their designated territories and Serbs and Croats heading out. One international official in the region envisions a mass movement like the flight of Muslims to Pakistan and Hindus to India after the British left the Subcontinent. But in Bosnia, the transfers would still leave unclear the fate of hundreds of thousands of people of mixed ancestry or mixed marriage. Which state would they call home?
_B_Without international policing, the plan could be doomed.b Bill Clinton vowed to send U.S. ground troops to enforce the Vance-Owen plan, which proposed keeping Bosnia intact but dividing the country into 10 semiautonomous provinces. Since that plan is dead, the commitment no longer applies. Yet without large numbers of international soldiers to keep peace along the new boundaries, the Muslims would live in constant danger of Serb or Croat attack. Most likely, says a foreign-relief official, the Muslims “would try to arm themselves for the next round-because there will be a next round.”
In fact, the mere talk of partition could trigger new hostilities any time. It’s already set off a round of threats and counter-threats. Serb forces continue to besiege the eastern Bosnian enclave of Gorazde. Radovan Karadzic, the Bosnian Serb leader, offered to trade Sarajevo to the Muslims for Gorazde. But he also said that if Izetbegovic refuses to accept partition soon, the Serbs and Croats would be that much more justified in “defeating” Muslim forces. For his part, Izetbegovic’s vice president, Ejup Ganic, said there will be terrorist attacks by Bosnians in Europe if the West abandons Bosnia. It was a desperate and probably idle threat that reflects the rising desperation of Bosnia’s Muslims. Lord Owen may be able to exploit their vulnerability to get some sort of peace plan at Geneva. But ultimately, partition is unlikely to heal the bleeding sore of the Balkans.
