No matter. Israeli leader Ehud Barak has already marked a new date on his calendar: Oct. 30. That’s the day Israeli lawmakers return from their summer recess for a fresh round of voting on a bill to bring down Barak’s government. If no peace agreement is reached by then, Barak, to ensure his political survival, will have to buttress his coalition with opponents of his peace offer to the Palestinians, including the ultra-Orthodox Shas party and possibly the main opposition, Likud. If Shas or Likud is in, conventional wisdom has it, peace is out.
With that in mind, American Middle East troubleshooter Dennis Ross returned to the region last week to pick up the pieces of last month’s failed Camp David summit and gauge readiness for a new one. Having let the two sides stew for a month, Washington is hoping for a renewed willingness to be flexible. At best, assembling a second summit won’t be easy. Before Israel will agree to another peace conference, officials say, Palestinians must soften their position on Jerusalem, the main stumbling block at Camp David. For their part, Palestinians want Israel to agree in advance to cede sovereignty over nearly all of East Jerusalem. And President Clinton, still smarting from last month’s failure, wants an agreement in principle before a new summit even begins. “We’re not going to have a summit for the sake of having a summit,” top Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat told NEWSWEEK.
But peace may get a boost, albeit indirectly, from an unexpected source. Former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose right-wing government nixed the prospect of peace with the Palestinians 20 months ago, is signaling a possible return to politics if early elections are called. Netanyahu, who’s been writing and lecturing since leaving the political stage last year, has made no formal announcement. To run for prime minister, he would first have to be cleared by police of suspicion that he took bribes and failed to return state property when he left the prime minister’s office last year. And he would have to win back his position as Likud leader. With polls showing he could beat Barak in an election, many Likud members are ready to roll out the red carpet.
Mere rumors of his return could be enough to induce greater flexibility in Arafat, whose loathing for Netanyahu was famous. “The last thing he wants to do is meet Netanyahu at the bargaining table,” said one Israeli official close to the talks. The specter of a Netanyahu comeback might even goad Israelis and Palestinians into actually meeting a deadline.
