There was just one problem: while Bush was busy building a colossal campaign network across the country, his rivals–mainly Arizona Sen. John McCain–were getting personal with New Hampshire voters. The state’s small size makes it easy for low-budget candidates like McCain to get around, and with its streak of Yankee independence, New Hampshire is impervious to the sway of national polls. By the time the leaves turned in Manchester, McCain was chiseling away at Bush’s lead. Some in-state advisers were urging the Bush camp to get their man on the ground–and fast. Now polls show McCain leading W by as many as 9 points, and the Bush team is finally changing course. “We’re going to the streets,” says one adviser.
It’s not panic time yet. Bush is only finding out firsthand what his father and so many others learned before him–that New Hampshire can be pretty icy to front runners in February. The Bush troops had hoped that a McCain win in New Hampshire wouldn’t matter all that much. But now the challenger is making inroads in critical states like South Carolina and Michigan, and Bush is convinced that if he’s going to sink McCain once and for all, New Hampshire is the place to do it. So the Texas governor will spend at least half of January in the state, ducking into firehouses and loitering at coffee shops. And a new storm of ads will show Bush schmoozing with voters, replacing a series of more scripted spots. The goal now is not just to salvage the nation’s first primary, but to end the war in a single battle.
Like Al Gore in Iowa, Bush now finds himself on the defensive in what was supposed to be friendly territory. If he doesn’t ultimately take New Hampshire, his failure there will be remembered as a cautionary tale of political hubris. He’s raised a staggering $67 million nationwide. (While McCain surged in the year’s final quarter, raising about $6 million, Bush pulled in still more.) But the Bush team has already spent about $36 million of it, opening offices in all 50 states–and Guam. All that money has had little impact in New Hampshire, where Bush was on shaky ground from the start. First, his candidacy was introduced to the state as a kind of fait accompli, something Granite State voters resent even more than they do those pushy New Yorkers. It didn’t help when, after ducking the first two debates, Bush enlisted his wife to help explain one of the absences. The Manchester Union Leader snapped: “It’s unfortunate to see the man who could be the next president hiding behind his wife’s skirt.”
To be fair, Bush was caught in the classic front runner’s dilemma. If he stayed above the fray, he might seem presumptuous. But if he appeared onstage with the others and peddled his candidacy on street corners, he ran the risk of making himself seem small and squandering his aura of invincibility. His advisers chose to hold him back. Meanwhile McCain was campaigning tirelessly, holding 79 town meetings in 51 days. Having campaigned himself into the lead as an outsider, McCain says Bush’s last-minute foray into New Hampshire shows that the GOP elite is out to crush him. “The Washington establishment is now going to attempt to do what the Bush campaign has failed to do in New Hampshire, which is to contain John McCain,” says Todd Harris, a spokesman.
McCain’s about to find out that few people do hand-to-hand campaigning as well as W–he’s in Bill Clinton’s league–and Bush’s celebrity status will ensure him huge crowds from now until Primary Day (Feb. 1). Having committed the candidate to a month of hard campaigning, the Bushies won’t be satisfied to see McCain go down. They want to make sure he’s not going to rise again, in South Carolina or elsewhere. Bush “is fired up about this,” says Tom Rath, a Bush adviser. “This is not a guy who likes a short campaign day.”
The senior Bushes, who spend much of their time just across the border in Maine, will also exploit their local popularity. Barbara Bush is scheduling appearances, and the former president may not be far behind. No doubt the son is thinking about the father’s lessons. New Hampshire helped the elder Bush in 1988, launching his drive to the White House, but it weakened him four years later, when Pat Buchanan finished strong. George W arrived in New Hampshire on Great Expectations; he doesn’t want to leave in Hard Times.
