The $3 trillion House-approved bill includes a measure for direct stimulus payments to individuals of around $1,200 and up to $6,000 for families, as U.S. citizens continue to reel from the nationwide impact of COVID-19.
The Republican-dominated Senate looks set to reject it in its current form, with Majority Leader Mitch McConnell among voices criticizing the act and those behind it.
However, even if it were likely to be passed, the Senate recess looks set to push any decision back, leaving it unable to get through Congress before the end of this month.
What’s held up the HEROES Act?
The HEROES Act passed the House of Representatives earlier this month, in a 208-199 vote.
House Democrats, and notably House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, were behind the bill. Despite 14 Democrats crossing party lines to vote against it, the remaining majority still saw it through.
However, to pass through Congress, eventually placing the bill before President Donald Trump for his signature, it must be approved by the Republican-controlled Senate. The GOP has indicated that passing the bill in its current form would be an impossibility.
McConnell has called for a pause to assess the impact of previous relief measures, such as those in the CARES Act, in order to take stock of what should be done next.
It also appears the upcoming Senate recess will push back any decision regardless. Thursday is set to be its last sitting day, with no decision or vote on the HEROES Act expected before a week-long break. Business will resume on June 1.
This pushes the Senate’s final decision on the HEROES Act and the prospect of further stimulus checks until next month at the earliest. In the instance the bill passes the Senate, Trump would have ten days, excluding Sundays, to sign or veto the bill.
“We’ll discuss the way forward in the next couple of weeks,” McConnell previously said, again indicating a call on a further relief bill would be taken next month. While Senator Kevin Cramer (R-ND) previously said discussions will be conducted “after we get back.”
Democrats have called for measures to be pushed through immediately, with a clash over the urgency of doing so. Even within the GOP there has been pressure from senators to enable further stimulus payments.
Sen. Cory Gardner (R-Colorado) called it “unfathomable” for the Senate to be preparing to go on a Memorial Day recess without considering additional funding, while calling for acts he said had “bipartisan support” to be passed.
“It’s our job to help get the country back to work and make it through #COVID19,” he tweeted. “Now is not the time for the Senate to go home.”
Gardner has also reportedly indicated he could attempt to block the recess from happening, with McConnell usually seeking unanimous consent to do so.
He is among a handful of GOP senators calling for further measures imminently as the prospect of additional relief stalls.
Trump previously said the HEROES Act had no chance of passing the Senate and the White House indicated he might veto the legislation even if it did.
Pelosi has accused the GOP of “engaging in a clear act of political retribution” in holding up the act.
Similarly, the GOP has accused Pelosi’s actions of being politicized, with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy previously suggesting the Democrats are using the situation as an “opportunity to enforce their socialism.”
Senate Republican Conference Chairman John Barrasso said: “What Nancy Pelosi is proposing will never pass the Senate.”
Could there be more stimulus checks?
Despite the aversion to the HEROES Act a number of high-profile Republicans, including the president himself, have eluded to the chance of further coronavirus relief.
Trump last month said said there could be another round of direct payments and this was “under serious condition.”
The Senate GOP has discussed looking at the impact of previous spending before deciding on future spending. Therefore the potential of future stimulus checks looks to depend on assessment of the benefit of those previously sent out as part of the CARES Act.
While that makes a second set of stimulus checks unclear, a further stimulus bill of some kind in the face of COVID-19 appears likely.
Sen. Roy Blunt (R-MO) previously said that though it is unclear “when or how big,” it would appear there “will be future things we have to do to get the economy back.”
McConnell previously said he was “not ruling out” another fiscal package, though what contents such a proposal might have have not been determined.
He said earlier in May: “I think I can speak for our conference by saying we’re not ruling that out but we think we ought to take a pause here, do a good job of evaluating what we’ve already done.”
Not everyone has been convinced a future bill will be approved though, with Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA) suggesting the chances of a fifth bill being “less than 50 percent.”
Economic case for further stimulus
With COVID-19 having spurred an economic downturn due to stay-at-home measures and forcing business to close, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell previously suggested more economic stimulus may be needed to stave off long-term economic repercussions.
Powell suggested more federal aid might be costly but potentially “worth it if it helps avoid long-term damage” to the economy. Thought not addressing stimulus checks directly, the comments build the case for some form of further economic aid.
Barry Ickes, the department head of Penn State University’s Department of Economics, told Newsweek he was certain there will be a need for further fiscal relief due to the COVID-19 crisis.
“I am sure more relief will be needed,” Ickes said. “Unemployment will probably need to be extended, small business relief will be needed, and support for state and local governments will eventually have to be paid — they face balanced budget requirements. And, of course, the Fed will still have to massively extend credit.”
Asked about specific measures that will be needed, Ickes said: “I think the most important thing is to keep people employed, so that is why small business support is good. Direct payments is a lesser alternative, but certainly better than nothing.”
In terms of a full economic recovery, he suggested this might not be a realistic outcome for years to come.
“I am not sure getting the economy back to where it was is a feasible goal right now. We would be happy if the economy started to recover, but it will be years before we are back to where we were,” Ickes said.
Mark Gertler, the Henry and Lucy Moses Professor of Economics at New York University and a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, echoed the likely need for further fiscal relief.
He told Newsweek: “It’s quite likely that additional fiscal relief will be necessary as unemployment insurance benefits run out and as state and local governments are on the verge of having to lay off workers due to declining revenues. We also want to insure against a spate of business failures that will only amplify the downturn.
“Of course a lot depends on the pace at which businesses can reopen, which in turn depends on how successful we are in controlling the virus.”
Nearly 39 million unemployment claims have been made in the U.S. throughout the coronavirus pandemic, with huge numbers of workers losing their jobs amid the economic uncertainty.
In an update, the Department of Labor said: “The COVID-19 virus continues to impact the number of initial claims and insured unemployment.”
The impact of stimulus checks so far
More than 140 million stimulus check payments have been made so far, according to the Treasury, with a worth of around $239 billion.
Recipients have been given the sum of up to $1,200 per individual.
Under the HEROES Act a second round of payments could see individuals receive up to $1,200 each.
For the full amount of $1,200, an individual must have a modified adjusted gross income of $75,000 or less, while in the case of a head of household filing, that income cap increases to $112,500 and is further increased to $150,000 for those filing joint returns. Those filing joint returns can receive up to $2,400.
Recent polling has indicated Americans feel another round of direct support payments are necessary.
Of 2,000 Americans surveyed by OnePoll toward the end of last month, 82 percent felt a further stimulus check payment was necessary, while 58 percent of those asked said the federal government should provide further financial support to those who have lost their jobs due to coronavirus.
An earlier poll conducted by Morning Consult for Money, showed 60 percent of 2,200 respondents said the initial stimulus checks would make a difference but not for as long as was needed.
Newsweek has contacted McConnell, Pelosi and the White House for further comment.
More than 1.5 million confirmed cases of coronavirus have been identified in the United States. New York has been the worst-hit state, with the graphic below from Statista showing the ten with the most cases as of May 20.
